Hey, don't count it out yet, yes it was said XV wouldn't be shown anything substantial, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't tease something for an upcoming event with even a sliver of new footage, which would make option 2 still viable.
Honestly, I agree with you on the tease for KH3, what's the point of teasing that game at all at this point when you have people waiting on the next FF game. The timing on both KH3 and FFXV is very strange, we'll have to see what comes in the future at E3 and beyond.