Well, happy Monday Final Fantasy buddies.
I'm gonna dive right into my little theory I posted because there really isn't much else that's compelling to talk about prior to the event next week and after a whole weekend of discussions and research, this mystery is still unsolved. In fact, I don't think it's actually resolvable and that's the tl;dr of it all. At worst, the basic concept of my idea can't be disproven (That Stella was Luna long before it was announced) but it can't be disproven that Hajime Tabata is an alien god sent from the future. There are, however, inconsistencies in the narrative that I can't make sense of.
I spent the weekend hanging out with an old friend. We've been friends for 27 years (since first grade) and we we both grew up on the Final Fantasy games. He's a FFVII-R fanboy to my FFXV fanboy (Square already has our money for both, neither or us are haters) so we were catching each other up. In doing so, we ended up letting a marathon of FFXV related youtube videos run in the background while we talked about it all and I did notice what should be the smoking gun that kills my theory. There's a very story-related trailer that does show up some time before the reveal trailer that does show some parts of the story that appear to have made it to the final cut that includes Stella as she was prior to being axed. I've never actually seen this trailer outside of one of the "every FFXV trailer ever" compilations, but it is clearly PS3 era, features repeats of the Stella moments and has some hints of the plot as we know it today.
There is a scene with the boys looking back at the destruction going on in Lucis from a rooftop, mirroring the scene that appears to have made the final cut of rewrites where they're in the car, watching the army come to invade from a distance. It also features Captain Hoodie in what looks like the traditional bad guy role, but that hopefully doesn't confirm anything (I'm rooting for Ardyn to be the bad guy. You can't pull off that outfit unless you're a badass). But both of those scenes strike me as important parts of the story that were in place and likely match the final product, which does sort of put to bed the notion that there wasn't a coherent narrative ever written with Stella involved.
However, that doesn't solve the issue of Not only Nomura stating that Stella was in the game after the reveal trailer, and the fact that there was never any indication of Stella and Luna ever existing simultaneously. There was a poster on gamefaqs who is very knowledgeable that thinks that the young girl at the beginning of the reveal trailer is Luna, but that Stella also existed at that point -as evidenced by Stella having never met Noctis until that scene where he was wearing the suit in the old trailers, so the little girl he met as a kid would be a different person- only to be cut out of it after the fact by Tabata. The problem with that is that the portrait collage at the end of that trailer only shows one of them, and a close inspection of that portrait supports the theory that at the time the trailer was released, that character was indeed Stella. Side by side comparison photos are inconclusive because the character looks pretty much like the middle frame of of a face blend between Stella and Luna. But, she is wearing star-shaped earrings, which ever so slightly, but significantly, tips the scales towards it being Stella (along with the verbal confirmation given by Nomura). And this point is significantly after any additional rewrites that had to have taken place as a result of refocusing the project for a wider audience.
So, the most likely conclusion I can come up with here is that there really was more changed from the story than I had originally thought, or that they let on. It does appear there was some kind of at least basic outline for the story for XIII-vs and that story was heavily changed as a result of the shift, but that included a re-write of Stella's character into what Luna is today, only to essentially have her name and looks be the only things they changed after the fact. After which, to settle the issue and prevent the nerd riots, Tabata took the whole thing on his shoulders to squash the issue.
I also can't find any evidence of mechanical soldiers until after the reveal trailer. This suggests to me that the soldiers may have actually originally been human but were maybe changed to robots so you can still chop off limbs without getting an M rating, which was not a factor until it became FFXV. This means that the *entire* story was rewritten accordingly because the magitek troops are so much at the core of the story now.
Basically, my best guess conclusion is this: After the distractions that killed FFXIII-vs were over, they refocused on rewriting the entire script to adapt it to be a mainline title as the first order of business, most likely still keeping as many of the core elements of the original concept in tact, but that new version did, indeed include such a heavily rewritten Stella that they later made the decision to rename accordingly. Tabata's comments about how and why he made the call to make her changes still being totally true, but he intentionally left the timeline of that decision out so we would assume that it was more recent. And I think he did that to assure the fans that this is a consistent and coherent project he is in control of, and I think it backfired because of the inconsistencies in the narrative.