I was thinking about this a few days ago while watching some older trailers and I think it's finally time to write my personal thoughts on the game's opening events. To follow this post it'd be best if you are aware of every versus XIII/XV footage that's been released so far. I've seperated the scenes in different parts for an easier overview.
Part 1 The peace agreement party
(
Noctis wears a suit and it's around afternoon )
1. Noctis is on the way to the peace agreement party
2. Noctis arrives at the peace agreement party (it's in a building next to the Lucis' palace)
(
he still wears a suit and it's now evening - night)
3. Noctis meets Stella at the peace agreement party
4. Stella leaves the party early
5. Noctis is still there and the Nilflheim soldiers start to crash the party
6. cut
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Part 1.5 The signing ceremony
So next:
We're assuming the signing ceremony with Regis and Idola takes place simutaneously to the peace agreement party ( note: it's very very likely but we can't be 100% sure about this)
1. They meet for the signing ceremony in the Lucis palace
2. Idola betrays Regis → soldiers are crashing the signing ceremony
3. cut
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4. ( it's evening/night) we see Idola followed by his soldiers walking out of the Lucis' Palace. We also see (dead) bodies of Lucis' soldiers laying all around the palace. Idola commands to to kill all Lucii loyalists and Noctis.
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Now we have several scenes that are fairly hard to put in the right order:
Part 3 An act of love by the last king (!?)
(it's evening/night. Lucis Palace )
Regis is sitting on his throne and is speaking to someone ( not Noctis):
„I see you're just using it.
However I'm sorry to say that you can not become king.
I will not turn over the throne to anyone.
I will go down in history as the last king.“
We don't know when this happens and to whom he's talking here so it's pretty hard to put the scene in context with the other scenes. My guess? It could be right after the signing ceremony → Regis manages to escape from the signing ceremony room and tries to save the crystal. ( note: the crystal is enshrined inside the pillar of a throne.)
Things that speak against this theory:
1. He looks, talks and sits way to calm for somebody that just escaped from the invaded signing ceremony.
2. It's most likely not the throne-room where the crystal is enshrined.
It also could've happened the day before ( or as a flashback), who knows...it's a mysterious scene.
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Part 4 Noctis escaping from/ returning to/ escaping from Insomnia (!?)
Back to Noctis. ( he has changed his outfit and his friends are with him now. It's evening /night)
We see them doing different actions ( note: not necesarily in this chronological order)
1. The 4 guys are escaping with the car. ( it's evening/ night)
2. We see them fighting at different locations around and in the Lucis' palace.( it's evening/ night)
The question is: are they fighting their way out of the city or do they try to chase the enemy here?
3. Noctis faces Stella in the street leading to the palace - outcome = unknown ( it's evening/ night)
4. Noctis faces the hooded guy ( in the throne room with the crystal) – outcome = unknown ( Noctis will probably lose this fight but gets saved by someone) ( it's evening/ night)
Some interesting info from the dialogue during the invasion (and the reason why they're leaving in the first place) :
Noctis: Ignis, how is it?
Ignis:
They're continuing as if nothing happened. They continue to thrive together with the crystal. I think this is the best way it could end for the Nilflheim side.
Noctis: This means we will do a direct assault do recapture the crystal, right?
Ignis: No look at it realistically, Noct.
Noctis:
You saw my strenght, didn't you?
Prompto:
Yeah, we saw it. But your body isn't used to your new power yet. It must be tough right now.
Ignis:
You need more time.
Gladiolus: Let's go!
Noctis: Why should I, strongest of us all, run away!?
Ignis: When you remain here, the number of victims will increase.
Noctis: Why?
Ignis:
Because you're their target. They probably want to take you hostage and use that advantage in negotiations.
Noctis: Negotiations? At this point? I'll just kill 'em all.
Ignis:
Sorry Noct, but you're just not strong enough.
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As you may have noticed all the scenes I've described so far took place between after noon and night on the same day. Now we have two scenes ( from 2008 and jump festa 15) that are suddenly at daytime:
1. The 4 guys are (back?) in Insomnia but they're about to leave the city as they see the (burning) Lucis palace in the distance. (note: they already have the car)
2. The 4 guys already escaped from Lucis with the car but they don't know exactly what happened yet. Noctis is angry. ( meanwhile there are more Nilflheim airships heading to the city → the invasion is not over.). Maybe it's the scene when they're already on their way back to the city.
Note:
( While writing this whole post I just saw something that the PM UK mgazine wrote in their FFXV article)
According to the PM UK magazine the 4 guys set out to Cauthess and try to recover the source of the Lucis' magic and energy , (
seemingly „during“ the invasion! ). That would explain why they leave the city during the invasion and return to it later. But it'd also mean that the radio announcer was lying in the TGS 14 opening ( as I assumed a while ago) because the signing ceremony took already place. This whole Noctis escaping/returning/fighting/escaping part is pretty confusing and it's pretty hard to put those scenes in the exact right chronological order as of now.
The final scene of the 2011 trailer shows Noctis and Ignis talking about how they can make up a plan that is even worse than their(Nilflheim) own. ( Noctis is sitting on a throne. It's probably the throne-room in the Lucis palace in which the crystal is/was enshrined). I can't exactly say when this scene will takes place. (It's after the invasion but why are they back in the palace?)
There are still some more things I'd like to add but I think that's enough for the moment. ^-^